ResidualCheck
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ResidualCheck · Independent lease residual analysis — not affiliated with BMW FS, MBFS, AFS, or any captive. Projections are directional, from public listing data. Methodology

Run a residual check

Compare the captive's quoted residual against current market resale data — about 30 seconds.

Try one:2026 BMW X3 M50 · 39 mo−6.5 pp2026 BMW i4 eDrive40 · 36 mo+5.8 pp

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Captive residual—
Market reality—
The gap—

Updates as you fill the form. Run the check for comp-backed numbers.

Why the residual matters+–
The residual is the value the captive guarantees at lease end. You only pay the depreciation between selling price and residual — so a residual set above market means the captive is absorbing depreciation for you.
How incentivized leasing works+–
Captives boost residuals to move inventory or compete. If the program says 56% but comparable used units imply 50%, the captive is quietly paying ~6% of MSRP on your behalf.
What the comps are+–
Sold and listed vehicles of the same model, model year (lease end minus term), and lease-end mileage ±1,500 mi — every one shown with VIN, mileage, and price.
Captive
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Gap
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Vehicle

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Lease terms

Leave 0 for a new unit; enter current odometer for demo/loaner leases.

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Captive's quote

What the program sheet quotes.